Although the demise of “ICE” engines is planned and forecast for the future, this is not going to be achieved on a global basis. The emerging markets, have neither the will, nor the affordability to move to an EV transport base. Even hybrids are not being taken up in large volume
These markets will not eradicate “ICE” before 2050 to adopt such a policy and even longer to achieve the transition.
In the meantime diesel, gasoline, and natural gas powered transport, will thrive. The availability of well-maintained second-hand buses, trucks, and small commercial “ICE” vehicles in the next ten years, will dissuade fleet owners to change to EV. This will allow for such policy makers to avoid removing subsidies on fossil fuels, and discourage the adoption of advanced emissions standards until such vehicles are no longer available.
We must ensure that “ICE” emissions are treated even more seriously. CO₂ is important, but the emissions we breathe, NOₓ, CH₄ PM are of greater consequence. The adoption of all catalysing technology to treat these gases (especially methane and hydrocarbons), even if it is only for a relatively short lifespan – 25 years, must be encouraged and made mandatory in these countries where change to a decarbonising society is not on the highest of agenda.